Independent Study: Vehicle Thefts Fell 11% After Flock Cameras Went Live

Why This Study Matters

Motor vehicle theft has the lowest clearance rate of any major offense. According to the FBI, law enforcement agencies clear 1 out of every 10 reported motor vehicle thefts by arrest.² The implications of motor vehicle theft also reach beyond the individual victim. According to the Council on Criminal Justice, stolen vehicles are “often used to commit other crimes, including robberies, burglaries, and drive-by shootings.”³ Therefore, disrupting motor vehicle theft can prevent other crimes from occurring in communities. Promisingly, motor vehicle theft has been falling nationally.⁴ This study on Flock technology helps answer a natural follow-up question: how much of that decline did cameras contribute to?

What makes this study stand out is its scope. This working paper, written by Dr. Scott Mourtgos and Dr. Ian Adams, uses official FBI crime data to examine 216 agencies as they deployed fixed ALPR systems at different times, and tracked what happened to car theft, arrests, and vehicle recovery in each one. No prior study has estimated the effects of ALPRs across this many agencies or identified causal effects based on staggered, real-world adoption. 

Fewer Cars Stolen

Motor vehicle theft costs billions of dollars annually across the United States. In 2025, over 650,000 motor vehicles were reported stolen. While most are recovered, having your car stolen affects your daily life: getting to work, picking up children, and going to school. Motor vehicle theft also makes up a significant portion of preventable crimes; in the study sample alone, vehicle thefts comprised over 1 in 5 reported property crimes.

The Result: Across 216 agencies, motor vehicle theft fell about 11% in the first year after fixed ALPR cameras were deployed. The effect is concentrated in the jurisdictions that had the heaviest motor vehicle theft burden before the cameras arrived. This means that ALPRs appear to help most where the problem is worst.

More Cases Solved

Arresting motor vehicle theft suspects is extremely difficult. Flock ALPRs improve detection of stolen motor vehicles, allowing police to act on information and locate offenders, while also potentially preventing secondary crimes.

The Result: Arrests for motor vehicle theft rose 15.9% after deployment. This represents a meaningful gain for a crime that usually goes unsolved; the researchers noted that arrests had been rising before the deployment timeframe. An ALPR network turns a plate number into a searchable lead, which is the kind of investigative help that can close cases.

Consistent With What Agencies Told Us

Earlier this year, the Flock Customer Census, a survey of nearly 700 law enforcement agencies, pointed in the same direction: more than 40% of Flock agencies reported that our technology was involved in recovering half or more of the stolen vehicles in their jurisdiction.⁵

Advancing the Evidence

The best thing that can happen to a claim about public safety technology is for someone outside the company to test it rigorously and independently, with real data. This study is a model for the kind of research we want to see more of. It was conducted independently, used national FBI crime data, and applied the appropriate statistical models to evaluate outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Flock pay for this study?

No. Flock did not fund this research.

Did Flock influence the study's findings?

No. The findings are the researchers' own.

What was Flock's role?

Flock provided the underlying deployment data that made the study possible. We also provided clarifications on product-specific questions so that the researchers could describe it accurately. We had no role in shaping the design or the results.

References

1. Mourtgos, S.M., & Adams, I.T. Working Paper: Automated License Plate Readers, Vehicle Theft, and Clearance (2026). CrimRxiv. https://www.crimrxiv.com/pub/zleg04q3/release/1

2.  Federal Bureau of Investigation. Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2025. https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/rcitn

3. Lopez, E., & Boxerman, B. (2026). Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2025 Update. Council on Criminal Justice. https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2025-update/

4. National Insurance Crime Bureau. (2026, March 18). U.S. vehicle thefts experience historic decline. https://www.nicb.org/news/news-releases/us-vehicle-thefts-experience-historic-decline

5. Flock Safety (2026). How Effective Is Flock? 2025 Impact Census Results from 700 Law Enforcement Agencies. https://www.flocksafety.com/blog/how-effective-is-flock

Interested in studying public safety technology with independent, real-world data? Reach out to our research team at researchteam@flocksafety.com.